Ever since Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian Crimea in 2014, there has been an increasing amount of tension and international attention given to the situation. Despite the support NATO has given for Ukraine and Russian activity in the area, the situation has yet to develop into a full-fledged war.
Approximately 13,000 people have died between April 2014 to the end of 2018 in the conflict, which some Ukrainians have dubbed the Donbas War. Of the 13,000 dead, 3,300 are civilians, 4,000 are Ukrainians, and 5,500 are estimated to have been Russian-backed forces. Between 27,000 to 30,000 people were wounded and injured in the conflict.
Although the commitment of the United States to NATO seems to have waned under the administration of President Donald Trump, America nevertheless has sent support to Ukraine in the form of US tank and NATO Infantry battalions. The US continues to be a major part of NATO and its response to the increasing aggression of Russia towards Ukraine despite its increasing criticism of NATO nations’ contributions to the alliance.
Unlike Russian domination of the conflict in Syria — indeed the US has even withdrawn existing forces from Syria in a recent move by the Trump administration — NATO has responded to Russian aggression by stationing soldiers in and around Ukraine along with training Ukrainian forces.
Despite its avoidance of open warfare with Russian forces, NATO has restricted Russia’s ability to dominate the situation in Ukraine by deploying forces in and around Ukraine, deterring an all-out war. A European war, which would involve Western European and Russian forces, would be very costly, and by positioning NATO forces in Ukraine the potential for all-out war is drastically reduced.
Although a wider war is unlikely, it does not seem that the tensions will dissolve any time soon. The world has seen concessions made by both sides towards reconciliation, with prisoner exchanges being the most notable and public example of these concessions, but the two nations still have yet to come close to negotiations. The people involved in the conflict have a long road ahead before peace will come as many Ukrainians oppose peace deals made with the Russians.
Start of Hostilities
During the Cold War, which began in 1947, Ukraine was under the influence of the Soviet Union, however, since the fall of the USSR in 1991, Ukraine has grown closer to Western nations as many saw a potential NATO membership expansion to Ukraine and trade deals with the European Union. The president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, seems to hold a foreign policy of reconsolidating Russian control over former Soviet territories, which includes Ukraine. Putin currently holds a rather strong grip on Russia, and his foreign policy seems popular among Russians as well.
In March of 2014, Russian soldiers took over annexed Crimea, which has a majority Russian-speaking population. Putin has cited numerous reasons for the act. However, since then Russia has taken many aggressive actions such as firing artillery from across the border, moving troops towards annexed Crimea, conducting cyberattacks and supporting groups fighting in Crimea. Despite the threat posed by NATO troops in the region, Russia continues to escalate its involvement in the area, with growing cyberattacks and continuing material and military support in Crimea.
Over 13,000 — which is considered to be a conservative estimate — people have died due to the conflict, a number that rivals the number of people who have died in the conflict in Yemen. The conflict in Yemen has been considered a Middle Eastern proxy war between the regional powers of Iran and Saudi Arabia. Despite the casualty figures seen in Ukraine, NATO has not been directly involved with the conflict for fear of a widened war.
Russia and Ukraine have exchanged prisoners recently, renewing the hopes for negotiations to happen between the two nations. Although it is unclear if they will take place or not, there is that option.
How can it end?
Although peace talks are not guaranteed, they do not seem to be an impossible task. Ukraine and Russia have made concessions to each other in the form of prisoner exchanges, including one in September in which 70 prisoners were released.
Ukraine and Russia even seem poised to exchange more prisoners in the future. However, some allies of Ukraine, including the Netherlands, have urged Ukraine not to partake in these prisoner exchanges citing Russian prisoners accused of shooting down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, and accusations of Russian torture of prisoners arrested on baseless charges.
Despite the urging of its allies, Ukrainian leaders seem determined to improve its relations with Russia. Ukraine, and perhaps even Russia, seems to be interested in ending this conflict. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy has even made a deal with Moscow to give autonomy to Ukraine’s pro-Russian rebel-held east.
Despite the tentative moves towards peace that Zelensky is pushing, Ukraine has still lost its sovereignty over Crimea and the government is facing internal opposition in the form of massive protests — which have recently turned violent — in Kiev for this move. Ukrainians are signaling their discontent with the move, hoping to influence the Ukrainian parliament from approving this deal.
Despite all the moves from both sides towards peace, there still exists much opposition towards peace from many internal and external factions. Zelensky’s deal is indeed a capitulation to Russian interests and would be a victory for and validation of Putin and his foreign policy.
Another way in which the conflict could end is with an electoral loss of Putin. Putin has been a relatively popular political leader in Russia. However, Putin’s poll numbers seem to have slipped in recent years, with less than half of Russians supporting Putin according to a June poll. It is very possible that Putin could potentially lose power in the near future, with a successor taking on new foreign policy goals.
Although it is very unlikely that Russia and NATO-backed Ukraine will engage in a full-scale war, it is still a scenario that should be considered. Although both Russia and NATO have mobilized sizeable forces into the region, potentially deterring either side from intervening more, both sides have been edging the other towards war. Russia has moved troops to the border and attacked Ukrainian infrastructure, while NATO has deployed four battalions to Eastern Europe along with two US tank brigades in Poland.
Why should we be concerned?
It has been only 28 years since the fall of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, which had divided so much of the world. Although unlikely, this could result in a war between major world powers. It has large implications for the world if this does happen. Even if no war happens, the attention of the West has been captured by this conflict and has escalated tensions between East and West. Many nations are captivated and actively involved in the conflict. We could also be seeing a new chapter of world history as Putin could lose power as a result of the Ukrainian situation and lose his decades-long grip on Russian politics.
Featured Image Source: The Daily Beast
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