Opposition politics in Serbia


Ever since 1990, the “Milosevic regime” has tenaciously held onto power, perhaps even wallowing in it. Slobodana Milosevic’s Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) will have kept an even keel for a full decade after this September’s elections, should it win. Western governments, and ordinary people in Serbia and surrounding areas would like to see Milosevic ousted but he remains. Why has the Serbian opposition not succeeded in putting Sloba to pasture? What are the future prospects of the radicalized Serbian political system, and is student movement Otpor viable? I believe that the opposition does not have a chance of wresting control from the SPS in this month's elections, and I will examine why, below.

Post communist transition
With elections being declared throughout formerly Soviet Bloc Eastern Europe and the rest of Yugoslavia in and after 1989, the governing League of Serbian Communists (LCS) could not avoid holding and participating in an election if it wanted to remain legitimate in the eyes of ordinary Serbs, and other nations. Slobodan Milosevic at this time was an ambitious and crafty bureaucrat, having taken over the LCS by 1988, in part through nationalist appeal.
By mid-1990, Sloba lumped together LCS and its well-funded front, Socialist Alliance of the Working People of Serbia, to create the Socialist Party of Serbia. The SPS was a continuity of the LCS but a contrast by being nationalist; likewise, Milosevic was its puppet master.
Milosevic called for a December 9, 1990 election date just one month in advance, leaving opposition parties one month to prepare campaigns — clearly at disadvantage. With over twelve parties running candidates it may have seemed democratic, though it was difficult for voters to separate wheat from chaff.
In any case, Milosevic’s rhetorical laundry list of tasks to accomplish for voters by 1989 included privatization, economic reform, integration of Yugoslavia and protection of minorities (notably in Kosovo) and ultimately he could not produce results for any of them, then or now. His most important to-do list item, national protection against anti-Serb persecution in Croatia, Kosovo and Bosnia made his formerly LCS party relevant once again, stealing the main issue against it from opposition parties. They could hardly have been more ambitious.
In 1990 the opposition had no serious chance at winning a role in governance of Serbia.

1991 - protest, then war
Student and opposition members demonstrated in Belgrade in march of 1991 against the newly elected but undemocratic government. The Yugoslav People’s Army was put into the streets.
In June 1991 war broke out in Croatia. After this, any dissent toward the SPS was difficult since it opposition politicians could be painted as disloyal. A polarized electorate further precluded serious opposition to the current government. Out of war, new political elements emerged: Seselj’s Serbian Radical party, a pet of the ruling SPS, and the coalition of opposition parties - DEPOS - which strived to radically bring a direct change toward democracy by calling down the ruling SPS and ending the war in Bosnia.
The West - US and select West European governments - supported Serbia’s opposition. This understandably caused more paranoia among Serbs, which Milosevic used against opposition parties, winning again in the 1992 elections.
You can take this cynically, that the US government had reasons for wanting Milosevic to stay in power for their own reasons, or that the State Department was inept and believed American support would bolster the opposition. You can probably guess what my bias is.

In the 1993 elections, Milosevic won again. He was in full control. Perhaps in urban Belgrade more democratic, pro-west opposition parties could win a share of the vote, but even there, because of war and internal problems (a perception of being traitorous), they did not often win. Of course I am over simplifying, and opposition parties have won big in Belgrade (i.e., in 1996-97) and elsewhere, although this did not lead to real power over national policy for various reasons.

Between 1993 and now, how has Milosevic maintained an iron grip, what will the September 24, 2000 elections be like, and how is public opinion in the streets, cafes and homes?

Why does Milosevic have staying power? During the early 1990s media and domestic police force became political tools of the government - Radio Television Serbia was purged of “disloyal” workers, and independent, critical news dailies were attacked. “Independent” media exist today, but all along they have been seen by some as treacherous (pro-West) or they are not heart at all (rural countryside) due to low budgets (think TV/radio transmission and KPFA). Of course, this is not to imply that the US has wide ranging political debates in its own “mainstream” media, either.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs (MUP) retains a police force of around 100,000, and the Yugoslav Army (AY) is a Serb army, one repeatedly purged over the years. The army is smaller and less powerful than MUP.

Milosevic needed a strong police to keep internal order in Serbia and also Kosovo almost from the time that he founded his rule. He needs it today to keep his government in place, mostly against internal threats. The army and most media do not challenge the government ever, for they are part and parcel of it.

Otpor
So what is the deal with Otpor? I have put off answering this question until I provided you with some very minimal context to today’s situation. (Without getting in WWII, unfortunately.)

I am inspired to make comments about the “student movement” Otpor for more than one reason. One is because of Jared Israel’s recent critique of them at tenc.net, based on another critique by a Bulgarian newspaper, that Otpor is receiving Western support (eg, CIA training) in how to conduct protests.

Second, I have been vaguely following Otpor over the internet news stream and when I looked at their website I have wondered in my subconscious what they are really about.

Third, some of my friends went to Otpor’s Belgrade office and chatted with a few members last month.

Fourth, I am interested in Serbia (and other nations in catastrophe) for good reasons and I am a student of political science.

Otpor means “resistance” in Serbian, or so it is said (I don’t know Serbian so I can’t say for sure). Their website looks modern and professionally done, unlike that of the government which is ugly and has not changed appearance in years. When you look at Otpor’s site - and if you live in the US how else are you supposed to learn about them - you see that it is exceedingly simple, and artistic.
What does Otpor stand for besides overthrowing Milosevic and sending him to the ICTY at the Hague on war crimes charges? From the site, it is hard to determine what else, for instance any sophisticated political program. The options for interpreting this simplicity are in my previous sentences - either Otpor is being sophisticated by keeping a simple message, they are a “CIA tool,” or they are not so sophisticated in the first place.
When my friends visited Serbia recently, they saw Otpor’s flags flying outside a downtown Belgrade office and decided to check in. The youths there talked about how they are hoping to mobilize two to three million young voters by going door-to-door all over Serbia.
On political goals, they first want Milosevic out of power, and the opposition in. Otpor’s staff see the opposition as “corrupt” but would prefer that over Milosevic’s mafia state any day. With their 2-3 million vote mandate, they could then exert pressure for change on the then-ruling opposition government. We shouldn't completely accept these simple, publicy-proclaimed goals at face value, although they might be true, and the good intentions of Otpor's ruling committee, or whoever is running the group.

How do common people feel about potential for political succession? Most people in Serbia feel quite pessimistic about chances for positive change in their country’s situation. Not only are media, police and government politicized, but because of the last two years’ troubles, the current government has purged the universities too - the last source of potential organized, elite rebellion.
There are no large threats to Milosevic and he has been smart enough to counter them all up until now, including the Clinton administration. I am not going to contribute mindlessly to his cult of personality which the Western press has created for him over the last ten years. I will say that he is not so charismatic (he is an adept bureaucrat) and he rarely speaks in public. Unlike Kim Jung Il of North Korea, I would not expect him to become an overnight international sensation anytime soon, in a positive way.

The "Yugoslav" presidential election will likely be another sweeping win for Milosevic because the opposition is divided by ego conflicts of various opposition party leaders, and because US government support undermines the opposition parties' credibility in the eyes of ordinary Serb citizens. In addition, the parties do not seem to have great political or economic programs beyond becoming elected to office. Kostunica was quite the nationalist in the early 1990s - he still is - but he has the charisma of a man who lives with cats at home, which is the truth. He is popular for not colluding with the West like many opposition leaders have, and he is a learned man. The public may not strongly dislike him, but in my view he cannot possibly have a broad base of support throughout Serbia.
The mayor of Belgrade, Vojislav Mihajlovic, holds some authority as the grandson of famed anti-Nazi guerrilla general Draza Mihailovic of WWII fame, whose men rescued American pilots, but not that much. I have heard him speak in person, and he does not excite crowds with passionate oration. I am not sure why he is even running as SRM's candidate.

Serbia needs, I think, someone like Panic or Kostunica, but even if they won, change would not be instantaneous. What Serb in her right mind is going to vote for some pro-Western pansy like Mihailovic or Djinjic? Why would you vote for politicians who are supported by the countries which bombed your city only months ago?

Milosevic has the rural vote in hand, he has the gray conservative vote (people 60-80 years old), and many other interest groups. He can “steal” the Kosovo vote, for about hundred thousand people. He really only needs 35 to 38% of the popular vote to win. Does this sound like another country you know?

Serbia's electoral system is similar to the United States system and also that of post-1993 Japan -- single member districts which favor the ruling party -- which is understandable because 24 Americans drafted Japan's Constitution in 1946. Milosevic pretty much has nothing to worry about. Something odd I learned recently: whenever and wherever Milosevic shows up, people go wild, cheering and such. It seems counter intuitive if all you read is the New York Times or some lesser paper which parrots it, but this is true.

For Milosevic, the September 24, 2000 elections will merely be a change in title (Yugoslav President). He will keep all his powers, and Serbia will muddle along like the late Soviet Union and today’s Cuba - if decreasing in size every year.

15:30PDT, 9/10/2000, written.
20:40PDT, 9/14/00 revised.
One of my sources for post-1989 history is an article by Nick Miller. Other, primary, sources will remain anonymous.

K.