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        riddles >> general problem-solving / chatting / whatever >> Bayesian Truth Serum
        
(Message started by: amichail on Oct 20^th, 2006, 9:00pm)

Title: Bayesian Truth Serum
Post by amichail on Oct 20^th, 2006, 9:00pm

What do you think of this?

http://targetyournews.com/?cmd=surf&urlid=656255

Title: Re: Bayesian Truth Serum
Post by Whiskey Tango Foxtrot on Oct 20^th, 2006, 9:15pm

If I am reading this correctly, he is using truth serum to establish a basis for evaluating a subjective opinion based on pre-established statistical expectations.

It does not seem too awe-inspiring, but maybe I'm hard to impress. Or just misinterpreting it. :-/

Here is a direct link to the article if you can't find it.
http://cipd.mit.edu/documents/publication_files/prelec2004science.pdf

Title: Re: Bayesian Truth Serum
Post by amichail on Oct 21^st, 2006, 4:42am

The task of filling out surveys has been turned into a game where participants try to obtain the highest score possible.

The best strategy for winning this game is to tell the truth as best as you can.

The whole approach is based on a psychological observation that if you prefer X, then you would overestimate the percentage of people who would also prefer X.

The specifics are a bit unclear to me though. Maybe someone could elaborate on why this works, at least in the case where questions have two answers.

Title: Re: Bayesian Truth Serum
Post by towr on Oct 21^st, 2006, 1:07pm

on 10/21/06 at 04:42:32, amichail wrote:

The whole approach is based on a psychological observation that if you prefer X, then you would overestimate the percentage of people who would also prefer X.

Really?
I usually assume no one else likes the stuff I like.. But then I've never been that good at playing psychological games ;)

Title: Re: Bayesian Truth Serum
Post by Grimbal on Oct 22^nd, 2006, 6:36am

on 10/21/06 at 13:07:12, towr wrote:

I usually assume no one else likes the stuff I like..

I thought I was the only one like that! ;D