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Topic: paradoxes (Read 10166 times) |
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mikedagr8
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Re: paradoxes
« Reply #1 on: Aug 29th, 2007, 12:19am » |
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Quote:| Buridan's ass: How can a rational choice be made between two outcomes of equal value? |
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Lucky dip, blind choice etc 
Quote:| Boy or Girl: A two-child family has at least one boy. What is the probability that it has a girl? |
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Quote:An ambiguous real-life version
Two old classmates, Anna and Brian, meet in the street, not having seen each other since they left school.
Anna asks Brian: "Have you got any children?"
Brian answers: "Yes, I've got two."
Anna: "Do you have a boy?"
Brian: "Yes, I do!"
Here, for some reason, the conversation is cut short.
Formally, this corresponds to the second version as Brian only has told Anna that at least one child is a boy. Accordingly, the probability that Brian has a girl should be 2/3. However, in real conversation, if Brian had two boys, he would be more likely to answer e.g. "Yes, they are both boys!" The fact he does not answer like that could reasonably be taken by Anna as a clue increasing her posterior probability of one child being a girl above 2/3. This highlights the need for precision when stating such problems in probability. |
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It seems to me that the answer is that the other child MUST be a girl, because
Anna: "Do you have a boy?"
Brian: "Yes, I do!"
Anna asks if he has 1, no more , no less, so the other must be a girl. But that is my reasoning, so bring on arguments, I am open minded.
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| « Last Edit: Aug 29th, 2007, 1:21am by mikedagr8 » |
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srn437
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Re: paradoxes
« Reply #2 on: Aug 29th, 2007, 9:51am » |
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Good answer, but no. The other child doesn't have to be a girl.
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ThudnBlunder
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Re: paradoxes
« Reply #3 on: Aug 29th, 2007, 10:40am » |
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on Aug 28th, 2007, 9:46pm, srn347 wrote:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_paradoxes
Try solving the paradoxes. |
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Try taking your Ritalin.
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srn437
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Re: paradoxes
« Reply #4 on: Aug 29th, 2007, 10:43am » |
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Ritalin? What is that, a species of archaebacteria?
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mikedagr8
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Re: paradoxes
« Reply #5 on: Aug 29th, 2007, 5:31pm » |
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Quote:| But that is my reasoning, so bring on arguments, I am open minded. |
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Quote:| Good answer, but no. The other child doesn't have to be a girl. |
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You didn't argue, you just said what is on the site. I mean, find why my argument is flawed. It is logical and makes sense, so it is correct.
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srn437
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Re: paradoxes
« Reply #6 on: Aug 29th, 2007, 5:39pm » |
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If a person has two children and at least one of them is a boy, what is the probability the other one is a girl. What if the older one is a boy.
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mikedagr8
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Re: paradoxes
« Reply #7 on: Aug 29th, 2007, 5:41pm » |
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Then he would answer to "Do you have a boy?" he would say no, I have none or 2.
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srn437
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Re: paradoxes
« Reply #8 on: Aug 29th, 2007, 5:42pm » |
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If you refuse to take it seriously, try another one.
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mikedagr8
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Re: paradoxes
« Reply #9 on: Aug 29th, 2007, 5:43pm » |
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on Aug 29th, 2007, 5:42pm, srn347 wrote:| If you refuse to take it seriously, try another one. |
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You should do the same.
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srn437
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Re: paradoxes
« Reply #10 on: Aug 29th, 2007, 5:47pm » |
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Which one am I not taking seriously?
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pex
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Re: paradoxes
« Reply #11 on: Aug 29th, 2007, 11:32pm » |
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on Aug 29th, 2007, 5:47pm, srn347 wrote:| Which one am I not taking seriously? |
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Like, the rest of the world?
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Barukh
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Re: paradoxes
« Reply #13 on: Aug 31st, 2007, 5:07am » |
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I think moderators should take care of this.
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mikedagr8
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Re: paradoxes
« Reply #14 on: Aug 31st, 2007, 5:12am » |
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Sorry srn347, I apologise for intimidating you. I'll be deleting the offensive post(s).
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ThudnBlunder
wu::riddles Moderator
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Re: paradoxes
« Reply #15 on: Aug 31st, 2007, 6:21am » |
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on Aug 31st, 2007, 5:07am, Barukh wrote:| I think moderators should take care of this. |
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I am THUD, Janissary at the Gates of Hard. 
Barukh, why have you put the frighteners on wee mikedagr8?
All his wimpy little insults have now been lost to posterity for ever.
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| « Last Edit: Aug 31st, 2007, 11:14am by ThudnBlunder » |
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mikedagr8
Uberpuzzler
A rich man is one who is content; not wealthy.
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Re: paradoxes
« Reply #16 on: Aug 31st, 2007, 4:16pm » |
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Lol, Not really, just I am trying not to piss everyone off. If I can leave it at one person in the real world, that's enough for me. So I'll try not to post B.S. to often.
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| « Last Edit: Aug 31st, 2007, 5:08pm by mikedagr8 » |
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Archae
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Re: paradoxes
« Reply #19 on: Sep 1st, 2007, 7:45am » |
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on Aug 29th, 2007, 12:19am, mikedagr8 wrote:| Anna asks if he has 1, no more , no less, so the other must be a girl. But that is my reasoning, so bring on arguments, I am open minded. |
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I do not believe that Anna specifically asks if Brian has 1 (no more, no less) boy; she only asks if he has a boy. If Brian does indeed have two boys, he could (although it would be strange) respond with a 'yes' and not a modification such as 'Both of my children are boys.'
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ThudnBlunder
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Re: paradoxes
« Reply #20 on: Sep 1st, 2007, 1:50pm » |
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on Aug 28th, 2007, 9:46pm, srn347 wrote:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_paradoxes
Try solving the paradoxes. |
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As your post is merely an invitation to view an interesting page, it does not belong in Hard.
I have therefore moved it.
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THE MEEK SHALL INHERIT THE EARTH.....................................................................er, if that's all right with the rest of you.
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mikedagr8
Uberpuzzler
A rich man is one who is content; not wealthy.
Gender:
Posts: 1105
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Re: paradoxes
« Reply #21 on: Sep 1st, 2007, 4:39pm » |
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on Aug 29th, 2007, 5:31pm, mikedagr8 wrote:
You didn't argue, you just said what is on the site. I mean, find why my argument is flawed. It is logical and makes sense, so it is correct.
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on Sep 1st, 2007, 7:45am, Archae wrote:
I do not believe that Anna specifically asks if Brian has 1 (no more, no less) boy; she only asks if he has a boy. If Brian does indeed have two boys, he could (although it would be strange) respond with a 'yes' and not a modification such as 'Both of my children are boys.' |
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That, is what I was looking for.
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mfirmata
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Re: paradoxes
« Reply #22 on: Sep 5th, 2007, 9:16am » |
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Quote:
"Is the answer to this question no?"
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I asked a guy I work with and he answered, "Know?"
At least, that's what it sounded like he said.
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srn437
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the dark lord rises again....
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Re: paradoxes
« Reply #23 on: Sep 8th, 2007, 8:10pm » |
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on Sep 1st, 2007, 1:50pm, ThudanBlunder wrote:
As your post is merely an invitation to view an interesting page, it does not belong in Hard.
I have therefore moved it. |
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Understood.
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temporary
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Re: paradoxes
« Reply #24 on: Feb 12th, 2008, 11:01pm » |
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Necktie_Paradox
You could also say it is in both of their disadvantage since they each either win the other person's tie, or lose a tie more valuable than the other person's tie.
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