Author |
Topic: Bayesian Truth Serum (Read 559 times) |
|
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
Uberpuzzler
Sorry Goose, it's time to buzz a tower.
Gender: 
Posts: 1672
|
 |
Re: Bayesian Truth Serum
« Reply #1 on: Oct 20th, 2006, 9:15pm » |
 Quote  Modify
|
If I am reading this correctly, he is using truth serum to establish a basis for evaluating a subjective opinion based on pre-established statistical expectations.
It does not seem too awe-inspiring, but maybe I'm hard to impress. Or just misinterpreting it. 
Here is a direct link to the article if you can't find it.
http://cipd.mit.edu/documents/publication_files/prelec2004science.pdf
|
|
 IP Logged |
"I do not feel obliged to believe that the same God who has endowed us with sense, reason, and intellect has intended us to forgo their use." - Galileo Galilei
|
|
|
amichail
Senior Riddler
Posts: 450
|
|
Re: Bayesian Truth Serum
« Reply #2 on: Oct 21st, 2006, 4:42am » |
Quote Modify
|
The task of filling out surveys has been turned into a game where participants try to obtain the highest score possible.
The best strategy for winning this game is to tell the truth as best as you can.
The whole approach is based on a psychological observation that if you prefer X, then you would overestimate the percentage of people who would also prefer X.
The specifics are a bit unclear to me though. Maybe someone could elaborate on why this works, at least in the case where questions have two answers.
|
| « Last Edit: Oct 21st, 2006, 5:22am by amichail » |
IP Logged |
DropZap - a new kind of block elimination game
|
|
|
towr
wu::riddles Moderator
Uberpuzzler
Some people are average, some are just mean.
Gender:
Posts: 13730
|
|
Re: Bayesian Truth Serum
« Reply #3 on: Oct 21st, 2006, 1:07pm » |
Quote Modify
|
on Oct 21st, 2006, 4:42am, amichail wrote:| The whole approach is based on a psychological observation that if you prefer X, then you would overestimate the percentage of people who would also prefer X. |
|
Really?
I usually assume no one else likes the stuff I like.. But then I've never been that good at playing psychological games 
|
|
IP Logged |
Wikipedia, Google, Mathworld, Integer sequence DB
|
|
|
Grimbal
wu::riddles Moderator
Uberpuzzler
Gender:
Posts: 7527
|
|
Re: Bayesian Truth Serum
« Reply #4 on: Oct 22nd, 2006, 6:36am » |
Quote Modify
|
on Oct 21st, 2006, 1:07pm, towr wrote:| I usually assume no one else likes the stuff I like.. |
|
I thought I was the only one like that! 
|
|
IP Logged |
|
|
|
|
RIDDLES SITE
WRITE MATH!
Home 
Help 
Search 
Members 
Login 
Register
Reply
Notify of replies
Send Topic
Print