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Topic: Probability Experiment (Read 314 times) |
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Sameer
Uberpuzzler
Pie = pi * e
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Probability Experiment
« on: Feb 2nd, 2005, 7:52am » |
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I don't know if this is the variation of 3 door problem. Here it goes!!
We plan to put our Subject to sleep by chemical means, and then we'll flip a (fair) coin. If the coin lands Heads, we will awaken our Subject on Monday afternoon and interview her. If it lands Tails, we will awaken her Monday afternoon, interview her, put her back to sleep, and then awaken her again on Tuesday afternoon and interview her again.
Each interview is to consist of the one question: what is your credence now for the proposition that our coin landed Heads?
When awakened (and during the interview) our Subject will not be able to tell which day it is, nor will she remember whether she has been awakened before.
She knows the above details of our experiment.
What credence should she state in answer to our question?
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"Obvious" is the most dangerous word in mathematics.
--Bell, Eric Temple
Proof is an idol before which the mathematician tortures himself.
Sir Arthur Eddington, quoted in Bridges to Infinity
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towr
wu::riddles Moderator
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Some people are average, some are just mean.
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Re: Probability Experiment
« Reply #1 on: Feb 2nd, 2005, 8:26am » |
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You didn't happen to have read this riddle somewhere, did you? (like a few months over a year ago on this very forum  )
[e]Well, it seems the old thread that I remember, was one of the decapitated ones started by Thud. That made it a bit harder too find.[/e]
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| « Last Edit: Feb 2nd, 2005, 8:40am by towr » |
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Wikipedia, Google, Mathworld, Integer sequence DB
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Sameer
Uberpuzzler
Pie = pi * e
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Posts: 1261
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Re: Probability Experiment
« Reply #2 on: Feb 2nd, 2005, 9:13am » |
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LOL no wonder i couldn't remember where I saw it... It was in hard!!!
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"Obvious" is the most dangerous word in mathematics.
--Bell, Eric Temple
Proof is an idol before which the mathematician tortures himself.
Sir Arthur Eddington, quoted in Bridges to Infinity
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ThudnBlunder
wu::riddles Moderator
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The dewdrop slides into the shining Sea
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Re: Probability Experiment
« Reply #3 on: Feb 2nd, 2005, 11:16am » |
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But these days I would put it in Medium.
Unfortunately, all my posts are missing from that thread, including the first one.
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THE MEEK SHALL INHERIT THE EARTH.....................................................................er, if that's all right with the rest of you.
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